What Are the Odds?

[tablesaw]

No, really, what are the odds?

Before I go to bed, I have to mention that BoDog.com is currently tracking the odds for the outcome of the Special Election. These odds are flexible, since being posted on Monday, Davis' odds of beating a recall have risen from 8:1 to 4:1, while Bustamante has dropped slightly from 3:2 to 2:1. Schwarzenegger remains stead at 1:10, which, for non-sports-betters, is very different from 10:1. At 1:10 odds, you win $1 for every $10 dollars you bet.

Georgy Russell is as likely to win as Larry Flynt; both have 100:1 odds. They're both five times as likely to win as Gary Coleman at 500:1.

Comments

[fortunavirilis.livejournal.com]

If it was any other state besides California would this be so enthralling? (Nope)

[bookishfellow.livejournal.com]

I'm surprised the bookies regard Ahnold as such a foregone conlcusion. If half the people who vote against the recall go on and vote for Bustamente (the closest thing available to not recalling Davis in the first place) and a quarter of the Latino voters do the same (not unlikely), wouldn't that make him pretty much a shoo-in?

[tablesaw]

I suspect that the short odds for Arnold is due more to the nature of betters than his own prospects in the race. This is an internet gambling site that appeals to a national/international audience who won't be following the recall election closely. So more people are likely to bet on Arnold just because it's Arnold and they know who he is. With so many people betting on one contender, the bookie needs to shorten the odds so that he doesn't have to pay out huge sums if that contender wins, especially when the dollar difference is not made up by long-shot contenders.