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Funny We Hadn't Heard about This
I saw this on Alas! A Blog:
I couldn't listen to the show, but it did send me on a new hunt for more exit polling, which led me to The Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles, which released the results of its exit polling in Los Angeles (PDF file).
Here's what it says on Prop 8:
Gee, those numbers look more reasonable don't they? And they sampled a larger number of African-American voters. And they sampled them in one of the cities where African-American voters are more widely represented in the state.
The report said this about its methodology:
Will this bit of data start to spread? Well this report came out last week, so we've got some work to do now that the truth is getting its boots on.
SatNYTX: 9:30 (wow!); SunNYTX: 12:45 (over 3x faster than Lisa); MonNYTX: 3:15.
So yesterday I was listening to Patt Morrison on KPCC, and she was interviewing various people about prop 8. One of the topics that came up was, of course, support for prop 8 in the black community. But before she began her interview with Jasmyne Cannick, a black lesbian journalist who wrote an op/ed for the LA Times, she stated that "lack of black support wasn't as substantial as initially reported - just over 50%, very much in line with much of the rest of the population."—Julie (formerly The Girl Detective), "Hold the *&%$ing Phone"
I couldn't listen to the show, but it did send me on a new hunt for more exit polling, which led me to The Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles, which released the results of its exit polling in Los Angeles (PDF file).
Here's what it says on Prop 8:
| N = 2686 | All City (100%) |
Region | Ethnicity | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-valley (60%) |
Valley (40%) |
White (55%) |
Hispanic (24%) |
Black (15%) |
Asian (6%) |
||
| Yes | 30% | 31% | 27% | 19% | 48% | 45% | 34% |
| No | 57% | 54% | 63% | 73% | 42% | 41% | 57% |
| Didn't vote | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 0% |
| No response | 12% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 9% |
| Total | 101% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| © 2008 Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles Presidential National Election Exit Poll in the City of Los Angeles. November 6, 2008. Margin of error is ± 1.89% for All City category. | |||||||
Gee, those numbers look more reasonable don't they? And they sampled a larger number of African-American voters. And they sampled them in one of the cities where African-American voters are more widely represented in the state.
The report said this about its methodology:
This exit poll was part of LCSLA's effort to implement new sampling methodology called the "racially stratified homogeneous precinct approach." This new method addresses limitations in standard exit poll sampling that typically has not provided accurate sampling of ethnic groups in urban settings.I didn't see specific explanation of what that is, but it does indicate that this exit poll was designed so that it would more accurately represent different groups' voting patterns.
Will this bit of data start to spread? Well this report came out last week, so we've got some work to do now that the truth is getting its boots on.
SatNYTX: 9:30 (wow!); SunNYTX: 12:45 (over 3x faster than Lisa); MonNYTX: 3:15.
no subject
I'm not interested in blaming black people (or non-white people in general) for the passage of Prop 8. Overall, far more white folks voted for it than black folks, and it certainly wouldn't have passed without such broad (and disappointing) white support. However, I have been really irked at the immediate backlash against the very idea that black people might have voted for the proposition in greater proportion than white people, because it seems to be a case of willfully ignoring evidence in order to promote some overbroad notion of multicultural tolerance.
There also seems to be a rush to conflate "blame" with "explanation." While, as I said, I don't blame black people for the passage of prop 8, there is still some explanation needed as to how a proposition that seems fundamentally at odds with liberal ideas about justice, equality, and tolerance could pass in a state that overwhelmingly voted for Obama. The fact that 1) black turnout in this race was, according to what I've seen, higher as a result of enthusiasm for Obama, and 2) black people were, at least judging by the polls, more willing to vote both for Obama and for Prop 8 than white people, suggest that this pattern of voting is one of the factors that allowed the proposition to pass.
Look, one of the cornerstones of multiculturalism and diversity is that different cultures are different. Pretending that we're all a homogeneous mishmash of vaguely liberal ideas is going to continue to get results like this one. You can bet the other side used the knowledge that black folks were going to be more likely than white folks to vote for Obama and for Prop 8 to their advantage. Until we can make the same admission and start directing money and education to address not only the concerns of white people who voted for it but also the concerns of black people who voted for it, we are going to continue to see results like these.
no subject
Almost forty percent of California's black population lives in Los Angeles, and almost all of the black population is clustered in other urban areas (notably the Bay Area). An exit poll limited to LA will not give a complete picture, but it will give a more accurate look at a large segment of the black population. Especially because this exit poll seems to have been designed to provide a look into this segment of voters, as opposed to merely having a number come up in the course of getting statewide numbers.
This poll in no way places "blame" for Prop 8's passage. Instead, it gives more evidence, and more nuanced evidence, of how African-Americans voted in California. If your examination of multiculturalism stops with "different cultures are different from each other" you're not going to get very far. Different cultures are also different within themselves, and this poll gives deeper insight into how black Californians voted, which is a worthy subject in any case.I have already offered my attempt at an explanation not specific to racial categories in a previous post. As for comparing the voting on the presidential races and the ballot races, I'm afraid I'm having a hard time following your argument. Perhaps it's my own experience as a Californian, where ballot measures tend to be treated as very far from the traditional party lines.
no subject
As laudable as I think your sentiments in that post are, I don't find it a convincing explanation so much as a moving editorial.
As for comparing the voting on the presidential races and the ballot races, I'm afraid I'm having a hard time following your argument. Perhaps it's my own experience as a Californian, where ballot measures tend to be treated as very far from the traditional party lines.
I can see that being an issue for some ballot measures, but less so on ballot measures like this one, touching on fundamental cultural and political ideas that have shaped the party. I'd like to think that most people are Democrats because they believe in Democratic ideas.
Here's the argument I'm making, however (and I think it's pretty clear I'm not a statistician): According to this poll, white people voted for Obama over McCain 74-21. That same demographic voted against Prop 8 73-19. I would propose that it's likely that those percentages are so similar, by and large, because the same people who voted for McCain voted for Prop 8, and the same people who voted for Obama voted against it.
But even if they didn't--even if every member of the 19% who voted for prop 8 were Obama voters, and every member of the 21% who voted for McCain also voted against Prop 8, the most that could be said is that less than a third of those who voted for Obama also voted for Prop 8. Had that held true across all demographics, Prop 8 would have lost.
Black people voted even more overwhelmingly for Obama--97-2. But instead of less than 1/3 (again, taking the MOST pessimistic estimate of the white-voter data) of those Obama voters voting for Prop 8, nearly 1/2 did.
I don't mean to single out black people. Hispanic people and Asian people also showed marked discrepancies between presidential vote and Prop 8 vote. All of this is tea-leaf reading, because we don't have any indication of the actual correlation between "voted for Obama" and "voted against Prop 8" among any of these communities.
What seems clear to me is that there are cultural factors at play here that we (in the pro-gay-marriage movement) are not addressing adequately, especially among non-white voters. Not that "BLACK CULTURE" (or "HISPANIC CULTURE" or "ASIAN CULTURE") is monolithic, any more than "WHITE CULTURE" is monolithic, but that there are segments of those populations who, based on other aspects of their voting pattern, seem as though they ought to be receptive to the ideas we're promulgating, but who, for one reason or another, are not voting in accord with what you and I think is obviously the moral and correct way to vote.
no subject
Think of it as the Bradley effect for gays. People don't want to tell you that they're supporting Prop 8, so instead they just say, "I can't remember" or "I don't discuss how I vote" (which all are categorized as No Response). No Response shouldn't be discounted in poll data.
no subject
I'm still a little hesitant about assigning nonresponedents to a "shy homophobe" factor absent other evidence. There's a lot of solid research on how nonrespondents tend to vote no on propositions, which would counteract some of that. Also, black voters tended to have higher nonresponsiveness on all ballot initiatives asked about in this poll (Prop 1A: 14%; Prop 3: 15%; Prop 4: 16%; Prop 7: 18%; Measure R: 17%; Measure J: 16%; Measure Q: 16%; City Prop A: 19%).
Finally, though, this does point up the fact that the reports based on the NEP poll did not list nonrespondents, which makes you wonder where they went to in the NEP model.
no subject
no subject